Capacity Planning View¶
Monte Carlo forecast for work completion at /work?tab=capacity.
Components¶
Forecast Card¶
Summary showing: - Backlog size: Items remaining - P50/P85/P95 dates: Completion estimates at different confidence levels - Throughput stats: Mean ± standard deviation - Warnings: Insufficient history or high variance indicators
Confidence Band Chart¶
Burndown projection with three bands: - P50 (green): Optimistic - 50% chance - P85 (amber): Target - 85% confidence (recommended for planning) - P95 (red): Conservative - 95% confidence
Throughput Histogram¶
Distribution of historical throughput with: - Bar chart showing frequency distribution - Vertical line at mean - Shaded ±1σ region
Interpretation¶
| Percentile | Use Case |
|---|---|
| P50 | Best-case scenario, internal targets |
| P85 | Recommended for external commitments |
| P95 | High-stakes deadlines, contracts |
Warnings¶
- Insufficient History: Less than 14 days of data; forecast unreliable
- High Variance: Standard deviation exceeds mean; consider longer history window
Data Requirements¶
Requires work_item_metrics_daily with items_completed data. Run:
dev-hops metrics daily --with-work-items